Tariffs, Stocks & Real Estate: What the Headlines Aren’t Telling You About the Bay Area Housing Market

If you’ve been watching the headlines lately, you’ve probably seen the word “tariffs” more times than you'd like. And while headlines are designed to grab attention, they often do more to terrify than to clarify.

At Real Estate 38, we believe you deserve real answers—not fear-driven narratives. So let’s unpack what’s really happening beneath the surface of these news cycles, especially when it comes to the Bay Area real estate market.

📉 Tariffs & Tech Stocks: A Familiar Shockwave

We’ve seen this before—back in 2018, tariff tensions rattled the markets. Today, we’re seeing a déjà vu moment, and once again, stock market volatility is impacting homebuyer behavior.

Why? Because many Bay Area buyers don’t just rely on salaries—they’re heavily compensated through Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) from companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Broadcom. When stock values drop—as Apple did recently by 30%—so does the down payment power of potential buyers.

The result? A temporary pause in activity. But here’s the critical part: this isn’t a crash.

🏡 The Inventory Story: From Starvation to Stability

At one point last year, inventory in San Jose was at its lowest since the early '90s. Fast forward to today—we have over 1,000 active listings. That’s a major shift. In fact, we’re now approaching a much healthier inventory level, offering more choices for buyers without causing prices to collapse.

This doesn’t mean prices are plummeting. It means the market is normalizing.

💰 Why Bay Area Sellers Won’t Panic-Sell

Despite stock jitters and economic buzzwords like “recession,” Bay Area sellers are sitting in a position of strength. A stunning 68% of homeowners either own their homes outright or have 50% or more equity. When sellers are that financially secure, they won’t unload their properties in a panic. They’ll rent them, hold them, or simply wait.

Even those with less equity—between 20% to 50%—are still in strong positions. That’s why prices haven’t dipped drastically and why you won’t see a wave of desperate sellers flooding the market.

📉 Recession ≠ Home Price Crash

Yes, a recession is being discussed. But guess what? Recession doesn’t automatically mean falling home prices. In many cases, it brings lower interest rates, which actually improve affordability and increase demand.

The data shows that when recessions occur, interest rates typically drop, driving buyer activity—not home prices down.

📈 A Surprising Q1 2025: Bay Area Defies the Trend

While some markets like Texas, Florida, and even parts of the Central Valley saw price declines in early 2025, San Jose saw a 10% increase in home values.

We predicted that jump. And we’re also forecasting a cool-down, with price growth settling between 2% to 4% by the end of the year. That’s a healthy market—not a bubble.

🔑 Buyer Opportunity Is Here—But It Won’t Last Forever

Right now, buyers have a golden window to get into the market without the chaos of bidding wars. Just this week, we negotiated a deal on a $3.1M listing for $2.8M—that’s $300K below list.

Deals like that don’t happen when 30 buyers are fighting for the same home.

💬 Final Thoughts: Ignore the Noise, Follow the Data

In uncertain times, the loudest voices aren’t always the most accurate. At Real Estate 38, we focus on data-backed advice, real-time insights, and strategic guidance to help you make confident decisions—whether you’re buying, selling, or just observing.

Have questions about the market? Want to discuss timing your move?

📞 Reach out anytime at (408) 515-1613 Let’s make smart moves together.